XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is about to record its fifth consecutive red monthly candle. The last time that happened—October 2016 through February 2017—the XRP price dipped 37% before bottoming near $0.0055 in March 2017. What followed was a 60,000% rally to $3.31 by January 2018, and traders are watching to see if history repeats itself.
The conditions right now rhyme with that explosive rally: five months of losses, tightening price action, and sellers running out of steam. But XRP now carries an $88 billion market cap instead of the micro-cap size that made 2017’s explosion possible, putting another 60,000% run off the table.
What traders want to know is if the same bottoming pattern that triggered the last explosive rally can spark a bullish reversal for the XRP price—even if it’s at a much smaller scale.
Five Red Candles: What Happened in 2017 and Where the XRP Price Sits Now
Five consecutive red monthly candles is a rare event for XRP. Even during the Terra collapse in mid-2022, when the broader crypto market lost over $400 billion in value, XRP only printed three red months in a row. The FTX implosion later that year produced the same result: three consecutive losing months, then a bounce. Before October 2025, XRP hadn’t recorded even four straight monthly losses since 2020, and now it’s on track for five.
Since the July 2025 high of $3.65, XRP has dropped 60%, falling from $2.84 at the start of October to $1.42 today. Each month since has closed lower than the last, with February currently down another 13.5%.
The last time XRP printed this kind of streak was October 2016 through February 2017—five months where the price slid from $0.00885 to $0.00557, marking a 37% decline. Then the reversal hit as the XRP price climbed from $0.0055 to $0.3988 by May 2017—a 7,000% gain in two months before consolidating through the summer. Then XRP surged again to $3.31 by January 2018, extending the rally to a 60,000% gain from the March 2017 low.
The current decline mirrors 2016-2017 in both depth and duration—XRP is on a 50% drop in five months compared to the 37% dip back then. The pattern is similar, but with XRP now sitting at an $88 billion market cap instead of a few hundred million, the projection for what comes next looks very different.
Why 60,000% Can’t Repeat—and What’s Realistic for the XRP Price
A 60,000% rally from $1.42 would put XRP at $852 per token. With roughly 58 billion XRP in circulation, that implies a market cap north of $49 trillion—more than the combined value of every stock on the New York Stock Exchange. That’s practically impossible considering all logical factors and market conditions.
In 2017, XRP bottomed at a market cap under $300 million, small enough that a few hundred million dollars in fresh buying could move the price by thousands of percent. Today, XRP sits at $88 billion, and pushing that higher requires enormous institutional-scale capital rather than retail hype.
Still, the pattern points to a meaningful upside. If the XRP price climbs back to its July 2025 high of $3.65, that’s a 157% gain from current levels. A move to $5—the upper end of most analyst forecasts for 2026—would represent a 252% return. Even Standard Chartered’s revised target of $2.80, which the bank cut by 65% last week citing near-term headwinds, implies a 97% gain from $1.42.
A 60,000% explosion is off the table, but 150-250% gains are still realistic if the pattern plays out. The gains just won’t come from retail traders piling in—they’ll depend on ETF inflows, institutional demand, and whether the broader crypto market recovers.
Where Analysts See the XRP Price Heading
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick was one of the most bullish institutional voices on XRP through 2025, projecting $8 by year-end 2026. Then he cut that target to $2.80—a 65% reduction—citing the broader crypto selloff and near-term headwinds. But Kendrick didn’t turn bearish long-term. He raised his 2030 target to $28 and noted that XRP remains well-positioned for institutional adoption once the market stabilizes.
Market analyst CryptoBull, who first flagged the five consecutive red candles pattern, sees the current setup as a mirror of late 2016. His view is that the pattern signals exhaustion rather than collapse, and that a sharp reversal could follow once selling pressure fades—similar to what happened before the 2017 rally.
AI-driven forecasts place XRP between $3 and $5 as the most realistic range for 2026, assuming ETF inflows continue and the broader market recovers. More aggressive scenarios targeting $6-$8 require ETF inflows to reach $10 billion and sustained institutional demand throughout the year.
The key variable that could spark a XRP reversal is Bitcoin. XRP rarely rallies while Bitcoin is falling, and with BTC trading below $70,000, altcoins remain under pressure. A Bitcoin recovery above $75,000 would likely lift XRP with it. Without that, even strong fundamentals may not be enough to spark a reversal in the near term.
What the Red Chart Pattern Means for the XRP Price in 2026
The 5 monthly red chart pattern has set the stage, but the next few months will determine whether it leads anywhere. The key trigger is Bitcoin. If BTC reclaims $75,000 and holds, altcoins including XRP could see green. A move back to the cycle high of $3.65 would represent a 157% gain from current levels, with $5 in reach if ETF inflows accelerate past $2 billion.
On the downside, a Bitcoin breakdown below $60,000 would likely drag XRP toward the $1.00-$1.25 range that some analysts see as the final flush before a durable bottom. The setup favors a reversal, but it all depends on macro conditions that remain unsettled.
For traders watching this pattern, the signal to act isn’t the five red candles themselves—it’s what comes next. A February close below $1.60 would confirm the fifth red candle, and XRP holding above $1.50 would signal that the key support is intact. A green March candle would be the first sign that sellers are exhausted and buyers are stepping in.
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