Why Won’t Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni Settle Already?

As Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni’s legal drama barrels toward a made-for-tabloid trial in May, the judge overseeing their civil case ordered them to sit for a settlement conference this week. According to the case docket and comments made outside court, Lively and Baldoni failed to reach a pretrial settlement. Lively has accused Baldoni of sexual harassment. He has accused her of defamation; that suit was dismissed. For celebrity-drama obsessives hoping for the same kind of bombshells that came out of Depp v. Heard, this is great news. While federal trials aren’t televised, they are open, so every messy moment is fit for public consumption. But experts versed in star-studded litigation say that anything other than a settlement could prove damaging for Lively’s and Baldoni’s reputations, regardless of the outcome. In other words, there could be no real winners even if there is a winner ™ at trial. As one crisis-PR expert put it: Nobody’s getting a “ticker-tape parade” for winning this thing.

Okay, so this is going to be one of those annoyingly nuanced answers. While we would know if a settlement were reached because of court filings, there is virtually no universe where we the public would know the terms. “They can settle this in a way that is confidential. Nobody’s ever going to hear who paid, if anybody paid anything,” Tre Lovell, a veteran attorney in Los Angeles, tells Vulture. “They will have non-disparagement provisions, which means nobody can talk badly about the other, nobody can defame the other, nobody can do anything negative.”

Neama Rahmani, founder of West Coast Trial Lawyers, voiced a similar sentiment. “Now, if there is a settlement, there’s really three things that I care about: the dollar amount, confidentiality, and non-disparagement. Those are the three most important principles,” he says. “There’s often a joint statement that’s put out. The matter is resolved. They’re happy to put this behind them.”

Some people might think that going to trial could result in a major payday, even though a settlement could bring things to a close. That’s not necessarily the case, and a whopping verdict might not even motivate Lively and Baldoni. “It’s not about the money,” Rahmani says. “Blake Lively doesn’t need the money. This is about her sending a message to Baldoni and standing up for herself. Then, on the other side, Baldoni was canceled. This is about clearing his name in Hollywood.”

Even though Lively has seen more success in pretrial litigation, “it’s going to be a tough case for her to prove,” Lovell says. “Lively has accused Baldoni of sexual harassment on a movie set, specifically on a movie set about a movie about domestic violence that requires interactions among the actors (as their characters) that are going to resemble violence.” He adds: “You’ve got to be acting in a way, or improvising in a way, where you’re touching each other, you’re kissing each other, you’re roughhousing with each other, depending on what the scene is; that’s what the job calls for … This is not your typical workplace.” If she loses, it will hurt her brand and fan the flames of opponents who think this was an ego-given case, says Lovell. If Baldoni loses, on the other hand, it could have a potentially large impact on his career and finances. “Both sides can avoid all of that,” by opting out of trial, he adds. “So there are serious disadvantages.”

Yes! Rahmani says that 98 percent of civil suits end in settlement. And celebrities are people, too, right?

No! Lively and Baldoni could settle right now. They could also settle on the day their trial is supposed to start. They could settle mid-trial. They could even settle after the trial! The world is their settlement oyster.

“Nobody is happy in a settlement by definition, because both sides are giving up much more than they want to give up. That’s just the way a settlement is,” says Lovell.

“But it’s: Can you live with it? And I tell my clients, if we can get terms that you can live with, it’s absolutely the best situation, because after that, you’re going to have more attorney fees, you’re going to have uncertainty, you’re going to have the stress of going through a trial,” says Lovell. Settling also means everyone can avoid appeals that often unfold when someone dislikes a jury verdict. He’s had settlements that take about 15 minutes to broker and then “about a week to negotiate the press release.” The post-settlement statement might take a while because they want it to be beneficial to them and “save face.”

“You never know what a court is going to decide.” That’s what Juda Engelmayer, a crisis-PR veteran whose clientele has included Harvey Weinstein, says he would tell his clients. Skeletons in the closet could emerge, damaging a side’s case. Engelmayer used Johnny Depp’s decision to take his defamation case against Amber Heard to trial, and it worked in his favor. “He comes out the hero, and she comes out looking like she was a liar,” he says. Both sides could feel that a trial, risky as it is, could exonerate them in some way.

But there’s the reality of what a court victory is and isn’t. Engelmayer says there won’t be a “ticker-tape parade” for the victor. “This is silly vanity. They can make movies and sell more Mint mobile phones, and their life will go on.”

Lively’s team did not immediately respond to Vulture’s request for comment. According to People, Baldoni’s attorney, Bryan Freedman, told reporters outside court that they didn’t reach a settlement. When asked if he thought there would still be a trial, Freedman reportedly said, “I do. We’re looking forward to it.”