After what seems like a full year of talking about these films, the time has come to make predictions for the winners of the 98th Oscars. For a while, on paper at least, it has appeared to be a fairly easy year to predict. Virtually all the endless precursor awards settled on One Battle After Another until Sinners shook up the race at the very last minute (halfway through actual Oscar voting) at last week’s Actor Awards, and suddenly some were declaring the race had opened up. Other than Best Actress, the acting races also appeared fluid going into final balloting.
RELATED: Oscar Nominations 2026: ‘Sinners’ Leads With Record 16, ‘One Battle’ 13
But the real wild card, as I have been writing, is a new Academy stipulation that voters must attest they have seen all the nominees in a category before voting. Although this is largely on an honesty basis, there are technical additions to the ballot that may have complicated the process for voters. You have to click that you have seen a film if not already given credit on the Academy’s digital screening room.
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Anytime there is new technology there can be problems, and I have heard for some there were. One voter who first chose to vote for International Feature Film told me their entire ballot shut down with a “Thank you for voting.” Calling the helpline, the Academy member apologized for bothering and said the IT person told them they weren’t alone, and the helpline has been very “busy” with others experiencing similar problems as well as other glitches. This voter had to get their ballot restored in order to vote in the remainder of the categories and told me they never could have figured it out on their own. In the end, bugs and all, everyone wanting to vote got to vote.
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Still, the new rule requiring “proof” or at least personal attestment to watching the films clearly has been intimidating for some, adding more pressure than usual, based on my informal surveys, and perhaps resulting in a smaller number of voters this year among the 10,000-plus eligible pool. The Academy never comments on numbers, but at a dinner the other night with a couple of members, one stunned me by saying they weren’t voting at all. This member had always dutifully participated for decades, even been involved in the campaigns, but this year confessed they just hadn’t seen enough so decided to skip it entirely rather than just vote for what they had seen. The other member though had watched everything, even the shorts, and was a model voter. I talked with a few who even mentioned the names of films they were running out of time to see; Hamnet and Sentimental Value came up more than once.
After my column headlined “Can Oscar Voters Be Trusted” ran, I got some interesting responses, none more so than the following email from a past major-category Oscar-nominated filmmaker:
“Hi, Pete, I enjoy your articles.
I thought you might be interested to hear a take from an Academy member about this year’s rules. I haven’t seen even half of the nominated films, nor do I care to, because my time is far too valuable to spend watching movies I know I’d never vote for (much less be able to sit through). I found most of the films I did see to be mediocre, and nothing that I nominated made the final cut. Therefore, since I don’t want to lie, I decided I simply would not vote at all this year. Yes, I’d like to vote for K-Pop Demon Hunters, but not at the price of watching four other movies I know won’t be as good. But really, the Oscars have become pretty irrelevant. Anora? CODA? Everything Everywhere All At Once? vs The Godfather, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton? Which three movies will people still be watching five years from now? It’s all about the film, not the award. Rather than watch the Awards, I’ll probably watch Singin’ In The Rain or North By Northwest or The Searchers – REAL best pictures which weren’t even nominated.
Feel free to quote me, but please don’t use my name.”
All of this is to preface the below predictions with a grain of salt, as it were. The various “brutally honest” ballots shared online have indicated some members who did vote were liberally skipping categories (most notably the short films) or choosing not to vote in others, because they haven’t seen all the nominees. It will be fascinating to see if this admirable attempt by the Academy to try and ensure members were seeing the movies before voting for them actually affects the outcome — especially in terms of turnout, as the new rules only apply to final voting, not nomination rounds. This new wrinkle certainly adds a level of suspense and further unease for those of us tasked with the annual prediction game.
So below are my predictions, not necessarily my choices if I had a ballot (I don’t) but just where I think the winds are blowing. Feel free to use them for your Oscar betting pools but, as I always say, don’t sue me if you lose.
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Warner Bros The Nominees: Train Dreams, Sinners, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein, F1: The Movie, Bugonia
In 1952, the Best Picture race was widely predicted as a close one between Paramount’s A Place in the Sun and Warner Bros’ A Streetcar Named Desire. However, in a shocker, the winner was MGM’s earlier-in-the-year release, An American in Paris. MGM even took out a trade ad the next day showing a drawing of their logo Leo the Lion with the caption: “Honestly I Was Just Standing in the Sun Waiting For a Streetcar.”
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File this under you don’t always know what might happen, and with the Academy’s preferential ballot in play only for this category — where voters must list their 10 choices by preference in order to get a “consensus” — well, surprises pop up (Moonlight, anyone?). This year, like 1952, there are two films considered to be top of the heap: One Battle After Another and Sinners, both from Warner Bros. But from the Gotham Awards onward, One Battle has dominated the conversation and become unquestioned front-runner. In fact, it has had a run of the precursor awards like I have rarely seen, a complete sweep until just a week ago, when Sinners beat it for the Outstanding Cast at the Actor Awards (SAG-AFTRA’s version of Best Picture). The room erupted, and suddenly some pundits were smelling upset, especially since Sinners also handily broke the all-time Oscar nominations record with a whopping 16. One Battle has a more down-to-earth 13. Are we looking at another battle of two titans as in 1952, with a possible sleeper lurking in wait to take it all?
Calm down. The safe bet, if there is one, remains Paul Thomas Anderson’s instant classic, as it has been since that official Academy screening before the film opened in September. The packed house of members at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater that night went wild, unlike I have ever witnessed there. I thought it already had it won then, and I see no reason to change that prediction. Still, momentum can mean a lot, and Sinners certainly has it. All we have to do for a note of caution is remember 2006, when Brokeback Mountain had all those precursor wins, only to lose the big one to Crash, which surged after a SAG Cast win followed by WGA, just as Sinners has done. However, like One Battle After Another, Brokeback also won at WGA, plus PGA, DGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, etc. Will history repeat itself? I doubt it.
THE WINNER: One Battle After Another
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Best Actor In A Leading Role
The Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent.
After wins at both Critics Choice and Golden Globes, Timothée Chalamet was considered the front-runner here, pretty much a lock to nab his first Oscar on the heels of being nominated twice before — including last year for A Complete Unknown. However, once it came to the awards the industry votes upon, he lost at BAFTA to Robert Aramayo in I Swear. But I Swear isn’t eligible at the Oscars this year, plus it is British so could be written off as just a quirk of BAFTA. But then, at SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Awards, Chalamet lost again, this time to Michael B. Jordan, in a victory that sent a bolt of electricity through the room and reset this race which is now virtually anyone’s to win. It is no doubt tight, and I wouldn’t count Chalamet out, but the momentum seems elsewhere. As for the stupid latest trumped-up controversy over Chalamet’s “dismissal” of ballet and opera — it’s not only taken out of context, it didn’t go viral until after voting closed. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of this quintet winning. Hawke’s movie is the least seen and only non-Best Picture nominee, but if voters are honest and see all five, he has a real shot. Still, the safer bet at the moment is…
THE WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
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Best Actress In A Leading Role
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features The Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Emma Stone, Bugonia; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
After winning at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA and the Actor Awards, can there be any doubt? This one was likely locked the minute the first screening of Hamnet ended at Telluride. The box office woes of her just-released movie The Bride! are not a Norbit moment (á la Eddie Murphy), as voting was closed before the movie opened this weekend. Not that it would have mattered anyway.
THE WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
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Best Actor In A Supporting Role
The Nominees: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
This is another wide-open category that has produced different results all season long. Elordi won at Critics Choice, Del Toro was the victor among numerous key critics groups, Skarsgård won the Golden Globe, and Lindo is considered long overdue. However, Penn, with two Oscar wins already, seems poised to add a third as the unforgettable Steven Lockjaw, plus he has come on strong at BAFTA and the Actor Awards.
THE WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
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Best Actress In A Supporting Role
The Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Look for the pair from Sentimental Value to cancel each other out. Similarly, Mosaku and Taylor being in the year’s two most-nominated films could also split voters allegiance. This all leaves an opening for Critics Choice and Actor Awards winner Madigan who will prevail, despite being the single nomination that her film Weapons got, and despite being a horror film performance. It’s unique, and she’s widely admired, gaining her first nomination, and second ever, in 40 years.
THE WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons
RELATED: Oscars: Every Best Supporting Actress Winner Back To 1937
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Best Directing
The Nominees: Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
DGA, Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner, and 14-time Oscar nominee long overdue, this seems an easy call, but if there is true momentum for Sinners an upset for Coogler wouldn’t be a complete shock, making him the first-ever Black winner in this category.
THE WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
RELATED: Oscars: Every Best Director Oscar Winner Back To 1928
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Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Gareth Cattermole
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Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Rich Polk/Penske Media via Getty Images The Nominees: Bugonia, Train Dreams, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Frankenstein
This one is a lock, as if PTA even had to prove it was by winning Sunday at the WGAs, following his collection of writing wins all season long.
THE WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
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Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Netflix The Nominees: Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2, Arco
Critical acclaim and being the highest-grossing movie of the year aside for Disney and Zootopia 2, this one will go to Netflix and Sony Pictures Animation’s inventive South Korean musical, the winner of 10 Annie Awards.
THE WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters
RELATED: Every Oscars Best Animated Feature Winner Since 2002
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Best International Feature Film
Image Credit: Neon/Everett Collection The Nominees: The Secret Agent, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Sirāt, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident.
A very tough category, but considering it has nine nominations including Best Picture, Norway should come up a winner for the first time. But don’t be surprised if Brazil, last year’s winner, repeats with The Secret Agent, also a Best Picture nominee. I would say it is close to a toss-up here.
THE WINNER: Sentimental Value (Norway)
RELATED: Best International Feature Film Oscar Winners Through The Years
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Best Documentary Feature Film
The Nominees: The Alabama Solution, The Perfect Neighbor, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Cutting Through Rocks, Come See Me in the Good Light
Again with the new rule stipulating you must watch all five nominees, a less-favored contender could sneak in, such as BAFTA winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin, which has its supporters. Still, the Netflix machine and the most widely seen among the five will be the one to beat.
THE WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
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Best Casting
Image Credit: Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images The Nominees: Sinners, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet
A brand new category, long in the making and finally here. Veteran Francine Maisler looks to be the likely winner for the year’s most-nominated film.
THE WINNER: Sinners
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Best Cinematography
The Nominees: Frankenstein, Train Dreams, Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme
History could be made here with not only the first woman, but also first Black woman, to win if Autumn Durald Arkapaw triumphs. She very well could but has tough competition from the gorgeous Train Dreams, and BSC and newly minted ASC winner Michael Bauman‘s expert lensing for One Battle After Another. Since this award tends to go to the most cinematic, I am going to stick with my Best Picture pick.
THE WINNER: One Battle After Another
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Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Sinners, Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, F1: The Movie
Often this goes right along with Cinematography if you are looking for a Best Picture winner. Not always though, and a film like F1: The Movie could surprise.
THE WINNER: One Battle After Another
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Best Production Design
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix The Nominees: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro’s lavishly appointed monster epic will prevail here.
THE WINNER: Frankenstein
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Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein
The most “costumey” costumes usually take this prize. Short of a Sinners sweep …
THE WINNER: Frankenstein
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Best Original Music Score
The Nominees: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Frankenstein, Bugonia
The Deep South blues sounds of Sinners will bring composer Ludwig Göransson a third Oscar in this category. He won previously in 2019 and in 2024 for his Black Panther and Oppenheimer scores, respectively.
THE WINNER: Sinners
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Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
The 17-time nominee Diane Warren will have to wait another year because the most likely winner here is the biggest movie song of the year. Unless Sinners is dominating and sweeps in that cool blues tune.
THE WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
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Best Makeup And Hairstyling
The Nominees: The Ugly Stepsister, The Smashing Machine, Kokuho, Sinners, Frankenstein
Time and time again we have seen a correlation between the winner here and an acting winner or nominee. This time the team behind the creation of the Creature played by Jacob Elordi have this in the bag.
THE WINNER: Frankenstein
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Best Sound
Image Credit: Warner Bros/Everett Collection The Nominees: F1: The Movie, Sirāt, Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein
Historically, car race movies from Grand Prix to Ford v Ferrari have reigned supreme for sound. I don’t see any reason to change that trajectory.
THE WINNER: F1: The Movie
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Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios The Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sinners, The Lost Bus, Jurassic World Rebirth, F1: The Movie
The first two Avatar movies won this award. No reason to believe the third time isn’t also a charm.
THE WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
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Best Documentary Short
NOTE: It is clear voting in the three shorts categories is not nearly as wide as other categories. This could be decided by just a few hundred members, so these are the deal-breakers in any betting pool. I have seen and reviewed them all.
The Nominees: All the Empty Rooms, Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death Of Brent Renaud, Children No More: “Were and Are Gone,” The Devil Is Busy, Perfectly a Strangeness
The most gut-wrenchingly emotional is All the Empty Rooms, in which reporter Steve Hartman visits the now-empty bedrooms of kids killed in school shootings. Emotional impact is a big factor here, but I would say the biggest challenger could be the anti-abortion doc The Devil Is Busy, which follows a day in the life of an Atlanta abortion clinic.
THE WINNER: All the Empty Rooms
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Best Live Action Short
The Nominees: Butcher’s Stain, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Singers, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, A Friend of Dorothy
A Friend of Dorothy with the great Miriam Margolyes is a delight. The Singers is special and boasts a terrific cast of non-actors. And Two People Exchanging Saliva is truly surreal and memorable. Hard to pick among these three alone, and I imagine that was a problem for the voters. On a hunch though, due to its black-and-white cinematic style and stylistic look, the one with the most international appeal …
THE WINNER: Two People Exchanging Saliva
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Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Sacrebleu Productions The Nominees: Butterfly, The Three Sisters, Retirement Plan, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Forevergreen
Retirement Plan is the funniest and most simple of the bunch, which is why I loved it. All of these are good, but if I get into the mind of a voter the winner is probably the most artistic one, Butterfly, a true Holocaust story with animation that looks like classic Renaissance paintings.
THE WINNER: Butterfly
Good luck in all your Oscar pools.
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