Wall Street has had its head in the sand through the entirety of President Donald Trump’s second term, whistling past the graveyard as Trump’s tariffs throttled the job market and kept inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% benchmark.

And Trump’s war in Iran is no exception, as traders have taken his word that it “is very complete,” even as other members of his own administration say the opposite. 

Oil commodities have fallen and the stock market has risen, as Wall Street believes that Trump’s Iran “excursion” is short lived. But the problem is, Trump’s word means nothing.

Unlike with tariffs, Trump cannot TACO a war. 

Iran has to agree to a ceasefire, and right now there are no indications that it will do that nor let marine traffic resume in the critical Strait of Hormuz, which is used to transport much of the world’s oil.

Indeed, a spokesperson for Iran’s armed forces said Monday that it won’t let even “one liter” of oil go to any U.S. or Israeli ally while the U.S. and Israel continue the war.

“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” they told Reuters.

In fact, oil experts are sounding doomsday alarm bells, saying that choking off the Strait has caused refineries to fill, necessitating stoppages in drilling that are not easy to resume on the drop of a dime.

“While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced,” said Amin Nasser, president and CEO of the world’s largest oil company, Aramco.

Among the disruptions is the shuttering of the United Arab Emirates’ largest oil refinery after a drone strike on Tuesday. Iraq has also had to cut back its production by a whopping 1.2 million barrels a day. Overall, the UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait have lowered oil output by as much as 6.7 million barrels per day.

That’s 6% of the world’s oil supply. 

Related | Trump crony blames oil crisis on Biden—because of course he does

Podcaster Joe Weisenthal spoke with oil market researcher Rory Johnston, who Weisenthal describes as “one of the least alarmist people in oil.” Johnston said that he is now “acutely alarmed.”

“This is the scenario you would propose as a thought experiment to understand how shocks like this would ripple through the global crude and refined products markets (spoiler: EVERYTHING BREAKS),” Johnston wrote on X.

Worse still is that Johnston said it’s not a problem that can be solved with the flip of a switch.

“This crisis will continue to get worse until normal traffic through the Strait resumes, and, at this stage, even if the conflict ended today and tankers ramped back up to 100% Hormuz flow, it would still takes months to return to anything resembling normality,” he wrote.

Johnston said that Wall Street’s underreaction to this crisis could actually make things worse, as Trump faces less pressure to end the war without a stock market decline.

“This isn’t over and the current market reaction, by reducing pressure on Trump, is only elongating the duration of the crisis and the physical disruption through the Strait of Hormuz,” Johnston wrote on X.

Even with oil prices falling based on vibes, oil prices are still far higher than they were before Trump launched his ill-advised war.

Bloomberg reported that, at current prices, any tax return relief Americans are expected to pocket would go right back to pay for the increase in gas prices Trump. So far, gas prices have risen an average of 60 cents per gallon from a month ago.

“We estimate that the oil breakeven price for the [One Big, Beautiful Bill] Act’s tax refunds is $83 per barrel. If oil exceeds that—currently the case—higher gasoline prices would more than drown out the gains from refunds,” Bloomberg TV anchor Joumanna Nasr Bercetche wrote on X. “At $110 per barrel, annual household costs jump by $1,960.”

So why isn’t Wall Street taking this seriously?

Perhaps it’s because many Wall Street bros have supported Trump, and now they don’t want to admit that he’s a disaster who could take down the global economy. But at the end of the day, there’s only so long that they can deny reality.

Hopefully Trump’s war ends before it’s too late.

Wall Street has had its head in the sand through the entirety of President Donald Trump’s second term, whistling past the graveyard as Trump’s tariffs throttled the job market and kept inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% benchmark.

And Trump’s war in Iran is no exception, as traders have taken his word that it “is very complete,” even as other members of his own administration say the opposite. 

Oil commodities have fallen and the stock market has risen, as Wall Street believes that Trump’s Iran “excursion” is short lived. But the problem is, Trump’s word means nothing.

Unlike with tariffs, Trump cannot TACO a war. 

Iran has to agree to a ceasefire, and right now there are no indications that it will do that nor let marine traffic resume in the critical Strait of Hormuz, which is used to transport much of the world’s oil.

Indeed, a spokesperson for Iran’s armed forces said Monday that it won’t let even “one liter” of oil go to any U.S. or Israeli ally while the U.S. and Israel continue the war.

“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” they told Reuters.

In fact, oil experts are sounding doomsday alarm bells, saying that choking off the Strait has caused refineries to fill, necessitating stoppages in drilling that are not easy to resume on the drop of a dime.

“While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced,” said Amin Nasser, president and CEO of the world’s largest oil company, Aramco.

Among the disruptions is the shuttering of the United Arab Emirates’ largest oil refinery after a drone strike on Tuesday. Iraq has also had to cut back its production by a whopping 1.2 million barrels a day. Overall, the UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait have lowered oil output by as much as 6.7 million barrels per day.

That’s 6% of the world’s oil supply. 

Related | Trump crony blames oil crisis on Biden—because of course he does

Podcaster Joe Weisenthal spoke with oil market researcher Rory Johnston, who Weisenthal describes as “one of the least alarmist people in oil.” Johnston said that he is now “acutely alarmed.”

“This is the scenario you would propose as a thought experiment to understand how shocks like this would ripple through the global crude and refined products markets (spoiler: EVERYTHING BREAKS),” Johnston wrote on X.

Worse still is that Johnston said it’s not a problem that can be solved with the flip of a switch.

“This crisis will continue to get worse until normal traffic through the Strait resumes, and, at this stage, even if the conflict ended today and tankers ramped back up to 100% Hormuz flow, it would still takes months to return to anything resembling normality,” he wrote.

Johnston said that Wall Street’s underreaction to this crisis could actually make things worse, as Trump faces less pressure to end the war without a stock market decline.

“This isn’t over and the current market reaction, by reducing pressure on Trump, is only elongating the duration of the crisis and the physical disruption through the Strait of Hormuz,” Johnston wrote on X.

Even with oil prices falling based on vibes, oil prices are still far higher than they were before Trump launched his ill-advised war.

Bloomberg reported that, at current prices, any tax return relief Americans are expected to pocket would go right back to pay for the increase in gas prices Trump. So far, gas prices have risen an average of 60 cents per gallon from a month ago.

“We estimate that the oil breakeven price for the [One Big, Beautiful Bill] Act’s tax refunds is $83 per barrel. If oil exceeds that—currently the case—higher gasoline prices would more than drown out the gains from refunds,” Bloomberg TV anchor Joumanna Nasr Bercetche wrote on X. “At $110 per barrel, annual household costs jump by $1,960.”

So why isn’t Wall Street taking this seriously?

Perhaps it’s because many Wall Street bros have supported Trump, and now they don’t want to admit that he’s a disaster who could take down the global economy. But at the end of the day, there’s only so long that they can deny reality.

Hopefully Trump’s war ends before it’s too late.