Potential blizzard in Boston could drop a foot of snow or more Monday, weather forecast maps show

Here we go. A major nor’easter could bring blizzard conditions to Boston at the end of the weekend, the latest weather forecast shows. 

The January storm was essentially all about the snow. It was light and fluffy and obviously really piled up fast. Monday’s storm will be a bit more complex and also hazardous.    

The snow will be heavier/wetter along the coast and Cape Cod, which heightens the power outage and roof collapse risk. The winds will be howling, gusting as high as 70+ mph along the southeast Massachusetts coastline.

Combine the heavy snow and the powerful winds and there will almost certainly be blizzard (whiteout) conditions in many areas. Lastly, we also expect some coastal flooding during a few high tide cycles.

Bomb cyclone

This storm is coming out of the deep South and will be loaded with moisture. It will start to take shape on Sunday as it emerges off the North Carolina coastline.

This week, we have been discussing several different track scenarios. It now appears as though the center of the storm is going to pass either right over or just southeast of “the benchmark”, 40N/70W, an ideal location for a classic New England nor’easter.

As the storm travels north-northeasterly Sunday night and Monday, it will undergo “bombogenesis,” a fancy term for a very rapidly deepening and strengthening low pressure system.  

When will the snow start?

The first flakes could come as early as just after sunset on Sunday.

The steadiest snow will overspread the area from south to north between 10 p.m. Sunday night and 3 a.m. Monday morning.

By dawn on Monday, the storm will be raging, and the snow will be flying. Snowfall rates in the heaviest bands could easily exceed 1″ per hour for several consecutive hours.  

Travel at this time will be absolutely treacherous.

The storm peak will begin just before dawn on Monday and last through Monday afternoon with a very slow tapering overnight into early Tuesday.  

How much snow?

We are forecasting 10-16″ across all of eastern Massachusetts, essentially along and east of I-95. This includes the North and South Shores, Boston Metro, Cape Cod and the Islands.

6-10″ are anticipated west of the Worcester Hills.

Amounts taper off the farther west you go.

But with a storm like this, there will likely be some extreme banding, with higher totals (this also usually leads to a zone of lower totals just to the west of the jackpot). Right now, we are favoring Cape Ann and the North Shore down through Boston all the way to the South Coast, and about as far east as the Cape Cod Canal. 

Wind concerns

Wind is a real concern. Northeast gusts will reach 55-70 mph or higher across southeastern Mass., Cape Cod and the Islands.

Just inland from there, we could see gusts between 40-55 mph.

Again, the farther west you go, the lower the wind impacts.

Because of these powerful winds and heavy snow bands, there is a high likelihood of reaching blizzard conditions along the immediate coastline and over the Cape and Islands.

For an official blizzard, you need falling or blowing snow that reduces visibility to less than ¼ mile for at least three consecutive hours and sustained or frequent wind gusts greater than 35 mph for the same time period.

These areas will also be at the highest risk for power outages as well.  

Coastal flooding concerns

Finally, we have concern for some minor to moderate coastal flooding during the Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning high tides.

There will almost certainly be significant splashover, coastal inundation and beach erosion.

Peak tides occur around 3 p.m. Monday and again around 3-4 a.m. Tuesday.  

Stay with the WBZ NEXT Weather Team for frequent updates on WBZ-TV, CBS News Boston and WBZ.com.