Iran’s leadership is struggling to manage the current situation as an organized military campaign, US and Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post at the end of the fifth day of operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury on Wednesday evening.
“Their ability to manage the war and issue instructions to forces on the ground has been severely damaged,” the officials said.
This is due not only to the damage inflicted on senior regime and military leaders, particularly in the opening moments of the operations, but also to strikes on mid-level commanders, field units, and command centers, one of the officials added.
Due to the severe disruption, the missile launches that Iran has managed to carry out are mostly sporadic and often conducted without clear directives or a coordinated launch policy, the officials said.
“Whoever can fire, fires,” one of the officials said.
The joint Israeli-US strikes on Iranian military forces have also resulted in a significant decline in missile launches. There has been an 86% decrease in launches compared to the first day of the conflict, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said on Wednesday.
In an effort to destabilize the regime and weaken its ability to suppress anti-regime protest activity, Israel and the US have targeted not only facilities belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its affiliated militia, Basij, but also police stations.
The investigative site Bellingcat published an analysis of satellite imagery from the company PlanetScope showing that at least 15 police stations in Tehran were hit by strikes. According to their analysis, attacks of this type indicate that the strategic decision in Washington and Jerusalem is to target any element, even at the lowest level, that could be used to suppress protests or attempts to change the regime.
Meanwhile, as Iran attempts to rebuild its leadership following the strike that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reports from Iran say that the country’s Assembly of Experts is conducting a final vote to select his replacement.
The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported that the meetings are being held remotely using a revised voting mechanism, and that the constitutional process is “fully operational,” with an announcement expected in the coming days, or even hours.
There are reports that Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has been chosen to replace his father as the supreme leader. However, these reports have not yet received official confirmation from the regime.
Khamenei’s replacement will be assassination target, Katz says
Any leader appointed by the regime will be an unequivocal target for assassination, Defense Minister Israel Katz said.
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have instructed the IDF to prepare and act using all available means to carry out this mission as an integral part of the objectives of Operation Roaring Lion,” Katz said.
“No matter what his name is or where he hides, we will continue to act with full force, together with our American partners, to dismantle the regime’s capabilities and create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow and replace it,” Katz added.
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