Earth’s first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026 » Yale Climate Connections

Tropical Cyclone Horacio became the world’s first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026 on Monday afternoon, February 23, topping out with 160 mph (260 km/h) winds over the warm waters of the remote South Indian Ocean. Horacio took advantage of favorable conditions for intensification for its feat: sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius (81-82°F) and moderate wind shear. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is predicting that Horacio has peaked in intensity and will steadily weaken as it moves southward over cooler waters, into a region with higher wind shear. Horacio is far from any land areas and is only a threat to marine interests.

Horacio is the first Cat 5 in the Southern Hemisphere since Cyclone Errol achieved that status off the coast of northwestern Australia on April 16, 2025. The 1990-2025 average yearly number of Category 5 storms globally was 5.3; there were five in 2025 (Hurricanes Melissa, Erin, and Humberto in the Atlantic; Typhoon Ragasa in the Northwest Pacific; and Cyclone Errol in the South Indian). Climate change is expected to increase the proportion of tropical cyclones that reach Category 4 and 5 strength.