California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Exit from Governor Race Opens Lane for Democrat Xavier Becerra

Economy Top Issue for 41% of Voters, Highest Since April 2025

A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of the June 2026 primary for Governor finds 17% support Republican Steve Hilton, 14% Republican Chad Bianco, 14% Tom Steyer, 10% Democrat Xavier Becerra, 10% Democrat Katie Porter, 5% Democrat Matt Mahan, and 23% are undecided. 

“In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. 

“Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote, 48% supporting Hilton and 40% Bianco, while independents are more fragmented: 16% support Steyer, 15% Hilton, 14% Bianco, and 10% Porter.”

Men split between the Republican candidates; 19% support both Hilton and Bianco respectively, while 18% support Steyer. Women voters are split between Hilton (14%), Becerra (14%), Porter (13%), Steyer (11%), and Bianco (11%).

A plurality of voters under 50 support Steyer at 15%, followed closely by Becerra at 13%, and Katie Porter at 11%. Voters over 50 support Hilton at 24%, followed by Bianco at 14%, Steyer at 13%, Porter at 10%, and Becerra at 8%.

The economy is the top issue for California voters at 41%, followed by housing affordability at 20%, threats to democracy at 10%, crime at 6%, immigration at 6%, and healthcare at 6%. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted April 14-15, 2026. The sample of California likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. 

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. 

Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using email and MMS text-to-web; a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web; and additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English. 

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by Inside California Politics /  Nexstar Media Group.

Note: The poll commissioned by Inside California Politics for the April 22 debate did not include former candidate Eric Swalwell, as he no longer qualifies for the debate as an inactive candidate.