So What Does Trump Do Now?

Friends,

Yesterday I posed the question to many of you: What does Trump do now that he’s cornered in the Strait of Hormuz?

I noted that Iran’s new supreme leader, in his first official message since he took over from his slain father, said Iran will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz by bombarding tankers trying to get through. Iran may also be laying mines in the Strait.

The closure of the Strait has caused “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” according to the International Energy Agency. Oil has reached $100 a barrel, gas at the pump has risen almost 20 percent since the war began, and the stock market continues to slide. Higher oil prices are also raising the costs of food, medicine, electricity, and airline tickets.

Trump knows all this could deliver Congress to the Democrats in the midterms. So — with the Strait of Hormuz blocked and Iran’s new regime sounding more belligerent than ever — what does he do now?

I offered four options:

1. He declares victory and exits the Middle East within a few days, even though the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked — hoping that Iran will unblock it to sell its own oil.

I noted that this poses a high political risk for Trump. Most Americans were against the war to begin with. If fuel prices stay high and Trump has little to show for his war, he and Republicans are almost sure to be penalized brutally in the midterms.

2. He unblocks the Strait of Hormuz with American warships escorting oil tankers, then he declares victory and gets out.

This is militarily risky. The Pentagon has been turning down requests to escort tankers through the strait, saying the threat to American warships from Iranian bombardment and potential mines is too high. Navy officers say Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles could turn the area into a “kill box” for American sailors. So, trying to open the strait now risks the deaths of more U.S. service members.

3. He spends the next two weeks trying to decimate what’s left of Iran’s missile and drone capacities and its navy, in the hope that everything will return to normal after Iran is neutered. Then he declares victory and gets out.

I noted that this is risky in a different way. Iran has shown remarkable resilience in maintaining its missile and drone offenses even as the U.S. and Israel have destroyed much of them. If Trump declares victory and Iran’s belligerence continues notwithstanding, fuel prices could remain high and the “victory” will be shown to be a sham. The worst of all worlds for Trump.

4. He gets Russia, Venezuela, and oil producer allies in the Middle East to dramatically increase production, in hopes this will reduce oil prices and contain the slide of the U.S. stock market.

This will be very hard to do. OPEC’s surplus capacity is limited. Venezuelan production is also limited; even if U.S. oil companies dramatically increased their investment there, it would take many months to boost output. Russia is selling its oil to China and India. Even with additional supplies, the Department of Energy warns that gas prices are unlikely to recede to prewar levels until mid-2027.

***
Almost 6,000 of you voted on these choices.

42 percent of you thought he’d choose #1 — declare victory and get out within days.

Only 6 percent of you thought he’d choose option #2 — he’d unblock the Strait with American warships escorting tankers.

32 percent of you chose option #3 — believing that Trump would continue bombing Iran for at least another two weeks if not longer.

9 percent chose option #4 — getting more oil elsewhere.

(10 percent of you had other ideas about what he’d do.)

The issue is coming to a head even sooner than I assumed. It looks as though he’s choosing option 2. Trump says escort operations will begin “very soon,” and in a pair of social-media posts today he called on other nations to help keep the Strait open.

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