Opposition to Iran strikes drops even as concerns persist, poll finds

What do Americans think about the U.S. war with Iran, and how have their opinions shifted since the conflict began?

A Washington Post poll of 1,005 Americans finds less opposition to the U.S. military actions than when they began, although more people still would prefer that the strikes stop than continue. A steady majority say the Trump administration has not clearly explained the war’s goals, and most say the number of U.S. casualties — including seven service members reported killed in action — is unacceptable. Many Americans are still making up their minds on the military campaign or hold a mix of positive and negative views about it.

Participants’ answers have been lightly edited for clarity and style.

A Post poll shortly after the strikes began found 39 percent supported “President Trump ordering airstrikes against Iran,” while 52 percent opposed them and 9 percent were unsure. The new poll asked generally about the “U.S. military campaign against Iran,” finding 42 percent support it, 40 percent oppose it, and 17 percent are unsure. The absence of President Donald Trump in the new poll’s question may have led more people to say they are “unsure,” as views about the president tend to color people’s opinions of his actions and policies.

The overall split in support for the campaign contrasts with recent polls, which have found Americans opposing U.S. strikes 50 percent to 38 percent, according to a Post average of 10 polls since the war started. When polls have offered “unsure” as an option, between 7 percent and 30 percent of respondents have taken it, suggesting that opinions are still in flux less than two weeks after the military operation began.

The latest Post poll finds a clearer shift on a second question that was asked in both surveys using identical language. The share of Americans saying the United States should “continue military strikes against Iran” grew from 25 percent to 34 percent since the first weekend of attacks. A larger 42 percent still say the U.S. should “stop strikes at this time,” down from 47 percent the day after the strikes began. Roughly one-quarter, 24 percent, say they are unsure, compared with 28 percent in the initial poll.

Among those who support the U.S. military campaign overall, 72 percent want the strikes to continue while 10 percent want them to stop and 18 percent are unsure.

Support for continuing strikes is up by double digits among Republicans, independents, women and people 65 and older. Majorities of seniors and Republicans support continuing strikes on Iran, while pluralities or majorities of independents, Democrats, women and people under age 50 want them to stop.

Just over one-third of Americans overall, 35 percent, say the Trump administration has clearly explained the goals of U.S. military action in Iran, while 65 percent say they have not. Those opinions have hardly shifted since the second day of the war.

More than 6 in 10 Americans say the number of U.S. military casualties in the conflict has been unacceptable given the goals and costs of the war while fewer than 4 in 10 say they are acceptable. Seven U.S. service members have died, according to the Pentagon, while about 140 have been wounded.

Americans are less tolerant of casualties in the Iran conflict than they were during the early days of the Iraq War two decades ago. About one week after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, 58 percent said the number of casualties was acceptable, according to Post-ABC News polls taken at the time. Acceptance of casualties fell below 40 percent after six months in which more than 300 service members had died, bottoming out at 21 percent in 2006.

By 53 percent to 46 percent, more Americans doubt that the U.S. military actions in Iran will contribute to the long-term security of the U.S. That’s a more negative split than in the poll immediately after strikes started; 49 percent thought the strikes would contribute to U.S. security then, while 51 percent thought they would not. The latest Post poll asked respondents why they think the U.S. actions will or won’t affect U.S. security in the long run.

Among those who said the U.S. actions will contribute to long-term security, 19 percent cited concerns about Iran being a threat to the U.S. and others, while 15 percent mentioned concerns about the country’s nuclear program specifically. Others said the campaign would demonstrate U.S. military strength or reduce terrorism. Eight percent reasoned that the U.S. strikes would contribute negatively to long-term U.S. security, indicating that not all people who selected this option view strikes as having a positive impact.

Among those who said the U.S. actions will not contribute to long-term security, about 1 in 5 said that the war was unnecessary or that Iran was not a threat, the largest single response. About 1 in 7 said war was not effective — with some drawing comparisons to previous Middle East wars — while the same share cited concern about retaliation from Iran or terrorist acts. Others reasoned that the strikes were motivated by issues other than U.S. security, worried that the strikes will damage America’s reputation or cited a lack of clear reasons for the strikes.