Republicans approach the midterms with a doomed play for unity

DORAL, Fla. — Republicans hoped to focus their midterm campaign on the bigger tax refunds Americans are getting from last year’s party-line megabill. Instead, they’re stuck in a doomed push to try for a sequel.

Most GOP lawmakers who gathered at President Donald Trump’s resort this week for their annual policy retreat said they doubted that the party could get another huge filibuster-proof bill to his desk, even as their leaders called for one. Several Republicans made clear that a new party-line bill would struggle to even get through the House.

And some of Speaker Mike Johnson’s members called for a different message ahead of the election, one that’s more focused on the economic goals Democrats are touting.

“I’d rather see us dig in on something else that’s equally important, like housing, costs of groceries, those sorts of things, and really help drive some of these prices down,” said Rep. John Rutherford, R-Fla.

A Republicans-only bill passed with filibuster protections isn’t “viable right now,” he added. “Certainly after the midterms.”

After Trump delivered a mixed message Monday night about when the escalating US-Israel war with Iran would end, the rest of the Republican retreat focused on putting an optimistic face forward. House GOP leaders don’t describe the midterms as lost, even though some of their members privately see a Democratic takeover as almost inevitable.

But maintaining that optimism through spring won’t be easy for the party’s leaders. Trump is expected to send Congress a request for more money for his war, while threatening to stop signing bills until Republicans pass a voter ID and citizenship law that faces serious hurdles. Republicans’ doubts about their ability to pass another megabill only adds to their problems.

Notably, even major players in last year’s huge tax-cut bill are joining in the skepticism. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith of Missouri, whose tax-writing committee helped make the “big, beautiful bill” happen, isn’t backing off his past views of a follow-up.

“I would absolutely love a second reconciliation bill. I would love that, but I just don’t think it will ever happen,” Smith told reporters, citing the immense difficulty Hill Republicans had last year, with a bigger majority than they currently hold.

Smith and other Republicans are simultaneously trying to sell their past accomplishments, like the megabill’s tax deductions on tips. They believe those benefits will give purple-district candidates a strong enough message to hold onto their seats this fall.

“Getting the votes is not easy,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., a senior appropriator. “I’m focused on the next appropriation bills, which is the next best thing.”