An assessment by Washington’s intelligence agencies produced before the U.S. attacked Iran found that even a large-scale assault would be unlikely to achieve one of President Donald Trump’s top objectives.
A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, described to The Washington Post by three sources familiar with its contents, found that Iran would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power—regardless of whether an attack narrowly targeted leaders or broadly assaulted Iranian leadership and institutions.
The assessment also found it unlikely for Iran’s fractured opposition to take control of the country.
The report was completed by veteran analysts a week before the U.S. and Israel waged a war against Iran, according to the outlet. The findings slap down Trump’s stated goal to “clean out” the Iranian establishment and install a U.S.-approved leader.
Khamenei was the longest-serving leader in the Middle East until an Israeli strike killed him at age 86 last weekend. In a Truth Social post, Trump celebrated his death as “justice for the people of Iran.”
A source familiar with the matter told the Daily Beast on Saturday that the National Intelligence Council “routinely provides assessments to decision makers on a variety of emerging issues and topics.” The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the council, declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to an inquiry from the Daily Beast. It did not tell the Post whether Trump was briefed on the NIC report before approving the attack on Iran.
“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told the outlet.
“The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed,” Kelly said.
The White House statement leaves out a crucial goal that Trump, 79, disclosed in an interview with NBC News on Thursday.
“We want to go in and clean out everything,” the president said of Iran’s leadership structure. “We don’t want someone who would rebuild over a 10-year period.”
“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,” he said without naming anyone, adding that the U.S. was “watching” the people on his list to ensure that they make it out of the war alive.
Just days before his NBC News interview, Trump admitted in a White House meeting that “most of the people we had in mind are dead” after the attacks, referring to the Iranian officials the U.S. would have backed for regime change.
Trump kicked off his weekend by thirsting over Iran’s destruction in a fresh Truth Social screed.
“Today Iran will be hit very hard!” he warned. “Under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death, because of Iran’s bad behavior, are areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time.”
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