John Thune Warns That Democrats Could Flip Texas Seat

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-TX) warned that Republicans risk losing a Senate seat in Texas if the party nominates state Attorney General Ken Paxton as the nominee.

Thune has endorsed incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who has held the seat since 2002. Cornyn is trying to fend off primary challenges from Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) in the March 3 primary. If no candidate receives a majority, the race will head to a May runoff between the top two vote-getters. Polls show Paxton and Cornyn in the lead, though neither has notched a majority in recent surveys. Most recent polls show Paxton with a plurality.

In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives voted to overwhelmingly impeach Paxton over accusations of bribery, dereliction of duty, and obstruction of justice. The attorney general was accused of using his office to help his friend and major political donor, Nate Paul, a Texas real estate developer. Paul allegedly employed Paxton’s mistress to keep her quiet in exchange for access to state records about investigations into his business.

On Thursday, Politico reported Republicans are panicking about the prospect of a Paxton nomination, adding:

Sen. John Cornyn appears to be headed to an expensive and nasty 10-week runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with a strong chance that Paxton wins the nomination even after national Republicans spent months airing his dirty laundry all over the Texas airwaves in an effort to boost Cornyn.

“Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate,” Thune told the publication.

Politico noted that Republicans have already spent $100 million boosting Cornyn in the race, and worry that they would be compelled to spend even more trying to get Paxton elected.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-TX) are vying for the nomination. A poll conducted this month shows Crockett leading by 12 percentage points.

Republicans control the Senate 53-47.

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