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Oscar Projections as Voting Gets Underway

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  • 27 February 2026
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A NOTE FROM SCOTT The time has come: the final round of Oscars voting began at 9 a.m. PT this morning and will run through 5 p.m. PT a week from today.

The 11,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are finding that the ballot looks a bit different this year than in years past…

• For one thing, there is a new category, best casting, which brings the total number of categories on the ballot to 24. Some members from outside of the casting directors branch tell me they wish they had been provided with more guidance about how they are supposed to evaluate the nominees. Is the award intended to recognize the overall best-assembled ensemble (it’s hard to argue with the depth and breadth of the Sinners cast), the nominee featuring the most impressive discoveries (which could be One Battle After Another with Chase Infiniti, The Secret Agent with Dona Sebastiana, or Hamnet with Jacobi Jupe), the most outside-the-box hirings that worked (maybe Marty Supreme, with everyone from Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary to the ranting Knicks fan Luke Manley), or something else?

• For another, all categories — not just the four pertaining to acting — now list the individuals who are personally Oscar-eligible for that category’s award, not just the nominated film titles, as had previously been the case. This could give a real boost to the prospects of well-known and well-liked perennial bridesmaids like best production design nominee Jack Fisk (Marty Supreme), best documentary short nominee Sheila Nevins (Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”) and best original song nominee Diane Warren (who, ironically, is nominated this year for a song in a film that already includes her name in its title, Diane Warren: Relentless). And it might also help something like the best documentary short nominee Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, given that Craig Renaud, the brother of the late titular subject, is one of the people listed alongside the film.

• And finally, voters, for the first time, must have seen all of the nominees in a category in order to cast a vote in that category — except, as has always been the case, they can get around this by lying. The Academy has long asked its members to abstain from voting in categories in which they have not seen all of the nominees, but many of its members have always wanted to weigh-in anyway — to vote for a friend, against an enemy or just to have some influence in the outcome — and faced no obstacle in doing so. Now, they have to go over the very minor hurdle of checking a box on the members-only Academy Screening Room streaming platform, next to the title of any film they haven’t watched on that platform, attesting that they have seen it elsewhere. How many voters who have seen four of five nominees in a category do you think are going to abstain from voting in that category?

Meanwhile, in the lead-up to voting, nominees and their backers have been throwing everything they can at the wall to see what sticks so they don’t have to wonder, after Oscar night, if doing just a little more campaigning might have resulted in a better outcome. For instance, Netflix has rented out an exhibition space in WeHo and turned it into a full-on art gallery — for 48 hours — displaying framed stills from best picture Oscar nominee Train Dreams in order to highlight the work of best cinematography Oscar nominee Adolpho Veloso. On Wednesday night, the space opened with a cocktails-and-hors d’oeuvres reception, attended by dozens of Academy members, at which Veloso’s fellow Brazilian, The Secret Agent’s best actor Oscar nominee Wagner Moura, showed up to toast him. Will the gathering move the needle for Train Dreams or Veloso or even Moura? We’ll never know… but it can’t hurt.

(l-to-r) Wagner Moura, Adolpho Veloso and Clint Bentley at the opening of the Train Dreams exhibition

Additionally, a host of award shows have been taking place over the past two weekends. The Spirit Awards, on Feb. 15, were a big showcase for Train Dreams, which won best feature, director (Clint Bentley) and cinematography (Veloso); If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’s best actress Oscar nominee Rose Byrne, who won best lead performance; best picture and best international feature Oscar nominee The Secret Agent, which won best international film; and best documentary feature Oscar nominee The Perfect Neighbor, which won the corresponding Spirit award.

Then, on Feb. 22, came the BAFTA Awards. The results were overshadowed by a terribly unfortunate incident that occurred during a presentation by Sinners best actor Oscar nominee Michael B. Jordan and best supporting actor Oscar nominee Delroy Lindo. But the organization’s voters, most of whom are based in the UK and who often reflect the tastes of the Academy’s sizable Euoprean bloc, broke heavily in favor of One Battle After Another, which took home six awards including best film, director (Paul Thomas Anderson), supporting actor (Sean Penn) and adapted screenplay.

However, the BAFTAs did little to clarify the three acting Oscar races that still seem up for grabs. Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet, the presumptive best actor Oscar frontrunner, lost to I Swear’s Robert Aramayo, who was not even Oscar-eligible this cycle. One Battle After Another’s Penn, who had not been recognized elsewhere, prevailed over a field that included three fellow Oscar nominees — his costar and this week’s THR cover star Benicio del Toro, Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi, who won the Critics Choice Award, and Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård, who won the Golden Globe Award. And Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku, who had not been recognized elsewhere, beat a field that included two fellow Oscar nominees, One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor, who won the Golden Globe Award, and Sentimental Value’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.

At this point, a few Oscar races appear to be sewn up: best director for One Battle After Another’s PTA; best actress for Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley; and best original song for “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters. But that leaves 21 that still seem to me to be somewhat up for grabs, including best picture (Sinners vs. One Battle After Another vs. Hamnet), actor (Chalamet vs. Moura vs. Jordan vs. DiCaprio vs. Hawke), supporting actor (Lindo vs. Penn vs. Skarsgård vs. Elordi), supporting actress (Madigan vs. Taylor vs. Mosaku), international feature (Sentimental Value vs. The Secret Agent vs. The Voice of Hind Rajab), documentary feature (The Perfect Neighbor vs. Mr. Nobody Against Putin vs. The Alabama Solution) and the list goes on.

Saturday will bring the Producers Guild Awards, which is always somewhat interesting because it is the only major awards show other than the Oscars that uses a preferential ballot to determine the winner of its top prize. Following on Sunday will be the Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG Awards), which can provide only limited insight into the Oscar race this year because its nominating committee overlooked all non-English-language performances, while the Academy’s actors branch nominated four.

In any event, the next time you see a forecast from me, it will provide my final picks for the 98th Oscars. And a lot can still happen between now and then!

PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening the films that are in contention, analyzing their campaigns, constantly checking-in with voters and studying relevant history and stats.


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