25 February 2026
Chicago 12, Melborne City, USA

With his tariff plan in tatters, Trump vows ‘to do absolutely terrible things to foreign countries … in a much more powerful and obnoxious way’

The S&P 500 lost 1.04% yesterday as the VIX “fear index” for volatility spiked 10%, but futures were up 0.16% this morning, suggesting traders may be putting a temporary pause on the panic selling that has gripped markets over the past 24 hours.

That panic came from two sources, one real and one fictitious:

  • The real source was the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are illegal, temporarily reducing the U.S. trade tariff rate to zero, and Trump’s chaotic reaction to it. Trump immediately insisted he would impose a global rate of 10%, then hours later said it would be 15%, and then shortly after that the White House said it would be 10%, possibly followed by 15% at some point in the future. In the past 24 hours, Trump has also vowed “terrible” things to come in trade policy, which he believes he can impose “in a much more powerful and obnoxious way.”

  • The fictitious source was the Citrini Research post on Substack, which imagined a future in 2028 in which AI destroys so many jobs that it sends the economy into a doom spiral. Software stocks declined 3.82% yesterday, in large part because of the fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the note. “The declines included IBM [down 13.15%], posting its worst day since the 2000 tech bubble burst,” Jim Reid and his team at Deutsche Bank told clients this morning.

Also this morning, more sober heads on Wall Street and in the City of London are pointing out that maybe the stock markets shouldn’t be selling off based on a blog post that opens by denying it is “AI doomer fan-fiction.”

As the Financial Times put it: “The stock market has reached the point where blog posts cause significant stock moves, or at least where people think that they do … The Citrini fuss is further evidence that we are in an expensive market that is looking for an excuse to fall, for reasons that are probably wider than just AI.”

The Wall Street Journal had a similar take: “Nothing underlines the sensitivity of stocks right now quite like what happened on Monday, when one of the factors behind the Dow’s 800-point drop was a 7,000-word hypothetical.”

Foreign trade partners of the U.S. are losing their patience with the White House. Countries that thought they had low-level tariff deals of 10% or so are now potentially looking at 15%. And countries that fought the White House and got higher tariffs may now see only a 10% tax level. “The perversity of what happened at the weekend was that those who got good deals, the allies, have been most disadvantaged,” Andy Haldane, the former central bank economist and current president of the British Chambers of Commerce, told the BBC.

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