A survey of almost 6,000 corporate execs across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia found that more than 80 percent detect no discernible impact from AI on either employment or productivity.
The study from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Massachusetts is based on input from CFOs, CEOs, and executives at enterprises of different sizes across the four countries.
On average, 69 percent of businesses currently use some form of AI, and 75 percent expect to use it over the next three years. Typical uses include “text generation using large language models,” followed by “visual content creation” and “data processing using machine learning.”
The impact of AI on employment and productivity is limited, according to those polled. More than 90 percent of managers say AI had no impact on employment at their organization over the past three years, and 89 percent saw no change in productivity (measured as volume of sales per employee).
Despite this, many execs anticipate significant consequences over the next three years, including reduced employment. NBER estimates this will hit about 1.75 million jobs across all four nations by 2028.
The respondents also expect their businesses to become more productive by about 1.4 percent over the next three years due to AI. This implies a reversal of the long-run decline in productivity growth in many advanced economies, the authors state.
The report also notes that employee expectations differed from the senior execs, in that workers expected to see more jobs created as a result of AI over the next three years, along with smaller productivity gains.
The NBER paper joins a growing body of evidence indicating commercial benefits of adopting AI are just not living up to their promises – at least not yet. A recent survey of more than 4,500 business leaders by consultants at PwC found that more than half reported seeing neither increased revenue nor decreased costs.
Research from professional services firm Deloitte uncovered that 74 percent of organizations want their AI initiatives to grow revenue, but only 20 percent have seen that happen.
A trial of Microsoft’s M365 Copilot by a UK government department, published in September, found no gain in productivity, with some tasks speeded up while others were hampered by it.
At the same time, Jared Spataro, the exec who leads Microsoft’s AI at Work efforts, admitted he was struggling to highlight return on investment (ROI) for Copilot because a lot of knowledge work doesn’t translate directly into top-line or bottom-line figures.
That hasn’t stopped others at Microsoft from making bold claims, though. Just this month, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman said most tasks that involve “sitting down at a computer” will be fully automated by AI within the next year or 18 months. He listed accounting, legal, marketing, and project management, according to Fortune.
Lenovo claimed recently that enterprises across Europe and the Middle East are accelerating their adoption of AI, with 94 percent of those surveyed expecting to see a positive return on their investment, despite growing evidence to the contrary.
A survey published by Gartner today found that organizations expect AI to transform customer service, enhancing the customer experience with humans continuing to provide judgment.
It also says that 91 percent of customer service leaders are under pressure from management to implement AI.
Nearly 80 percent of firms are planning to move at least some agents into new roles, due to the expected automation of routine tasks, while there is still a need for human expertise in “complex or emotionally sensitive” interactions. Gartner says 84 percent of leaders plan to add new skills to the agent role to support this shift.
All of this points to the likelihood of very modest productivity gains from implementing AI, in stark contrast to the hundreds of billions being plowed into developing these systems by the technology giants. It’s small wonder they are so keen for everyone to persevere with deployments, amid promises of jam tomorrow. ®
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